Why PH will not return to the ICC? Or maybe not yet

WE’RE full of optics since the March 11 arrest of Rodrigo Duterte and his quick handover to the International Criminal Court.

Duterte, the brain and chief architect of his government’s phony war on drugs, will likely spend the rest of his life in The Hague where he awaits the resolution of the 43 cases of murder and crimes against humanity filed against him.

The lawyers representing the victims are confident of a conviction. Duterte’s camp is clinging to the hope of a quick resolution that could bring him back home.

It will take around six months before the confirmation of the charges leveled against Duterte. That September 23 date set by ICC Judge Iulia Antoanella Motoc gives ample time for both the accused and the prosecution to prepare their arguments, but it is expected that the hearing would be far from what we see in the local courts. It will be clinical, no-nonsense to be exact.

It was painful for Duterte’s lawyer Salvador Medialdea to be shunned twice for his attempts to delay the initial proceedings. It will be a different experience for him and his team in The Netherlands.

Meanwhile, Duterte who will turn 80 on March 28, would not return home soon. Or maybe never while he’s alive.

That’s why our social media accounts are full of optics.

Duterte’s Diehard Supporters or the DDS are clinging to hope with various memes, videos, and oftentimes fake news. But that’s how far those optics are effective, they have become an echo chamber that the pink movement was before Leni Robredo lost her presidential bid to Bongbong Marcos.

The progressive groups are equally active with their counter-protests.

This rubbernecker found a flaw in their one call for BBM to rejoin the ICC on Monday, however.

Because, what for?

Marcos Jr.’s strategy not to deal with the ICC is the correct line if he wants to erase Duterte’s clout and all its vestiges.

With the former president away and done with, Marcos’ forces will only need to ensure another conviction on local soil to eliminate the biggest obstacle to his dream of rebranding the Marcos name: through Sara’s impeachment.

That will be taken care of by the next batch of senator-judges who will make up the impeachment court soon. Marcos’ candidates are leading in the poll surveys.

Rejoining the ICC would give Duterte’s team a chance to appeal his return to the Philippines even if he gets the guilty verdict to one, some of, or all of the 43 murders he had committed while he was still the Davao City mayor until he became president in 2016.

Duterte’s local presence, even if he is jailed, would give his followers a rallying presence. 

Marcos is not dumb to allow it. 

He knows the reasons why Evita’s body went on a 20-year journey after her president husband Juan Peron was ousted; or why Rizal’s remains were initially buried in a falsely marked grave; or why it needed a search party to find Bonifacio’s bones years after his execution by Aguinaldo’s men; or why the Marcoses bid time before giving the dictator Ferdinand Marcos, Sr. a decent burial.