THERE was a photograph of Chinese President Xi Jinping in full camouflage uniform beside some of his military brass taken during his visit in early November last year to a command center of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
They did not look intimidating, but recent Chinese actions were.
The photograph featured prominently on the front page of the mouthpiece People’s Daily was most likely Xi’s assurance to his generals and China’s Communist Party that he was not turning his back on his vow to make China a superpower country.
Besides, Xi had just clinched an unprecedented third term last year denying any successor by purging potential rising officials who might challenge his power.
Xi also changed the constitution in 2018 to allow himself indefinite rule while surrounding himself with yes men and politically weak acolytes.
That’s where the danger lies as “Xi’s decision-making was not always based on rational calculation” as shared by Willy Lam, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation.
In his speech, Xi had again warned against “dangerous storms” on the horizon and told the PLA to “comprehensively strengthen military training in preparation for war”.
It was not the first time Xi had ordered his army to prepare for war.
In 2013, Xi also ordered the army to focus on war preparation soon after he took power. Then in 2017, he made the same speech again. He only stepped up his rhetoric in his last speech.
Lam opined that Xi’s messages were directed at the United States and Taiwan, the independent country China wants to annex as its province like Russia wants Ukraine.
Xi, other analysts say, is testing the US.
The Americans are game with it, though.
US President Joe Biden had pledged that the US would defend Taiwan once attacked.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi even visited Taiwan in August and all the PLA could do was move several warships and planes near the median line that serves as a border between China and Taiwan in the Taiwan Strait.
It did not mean that China is not becoming more aggressive in flexing its might in the region, however.
That laser-pointing incident at a Philippine Coast Guard boat last week was more of a reminder than an intimidation. It tells the Philippines and the US that China practically controls the China and the West Philippine Sea.
The US, however, is ready just in case. It has built its presence in nine military bases in the Philippines recently and it is ready to expand its reach in one beck and call.
Earlier this month, the Royal Navy’s aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth chased off a Chinese nuclear submarine equipped with killer cruise missiles as it traversed from the South China Sea to the Pacific. The potential Chinese killer went off with its tail down.
The Queen Elizabeth is a constant visitor in the waters adjacent to the Philippines, its presence a welcome sight for the countries being intimidated by China which wants control of the sea lanes and the rich harvest these waters could provide its more than a billion people.
While China’s last major war was in 1979 with Vietnam, analysts believe it would attack Taiwan in 2027– adjusted from the earlier predicted year of attack as 2024.
It’s supposed to be next year. Xi, however, has not prepared for that.
It won’t happen unless we see sanctions being imposed on China, including the freezing of its assets and the liquidation and repatriation of Chinese assets held abroad.
The ration of oil and gas at this point of another conflict in oil and gas-producing Russia and Ukraine, coming at a time when the globe is still recovering from a pandemic, is also a concern for the big players.
Emergency supplies such as medicine or key technology inputs, critical minerals, food, and other basic human needs are also to be hoarded in case of a war.
Xi can rattle his saber, wear the thickest of army uniforms, and wear his most grim of a face in meeting his men, but no China is ready for war yet. Not against the battle-tested US and its allies.
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